Choose your own adventure: Conspiracy theories

(misinformation, conspiracy theories, inoculation, prebunking, AI, games, gamification, information literacy)

(misinformation, conspiracy theories, inoculation, prebunking, AI, games, gamification, information literacy)

[Following the conversation in my previous post, “Pathogenic risks, from H5N1 to Zombies to Misinformation,” I decided to try to develop a simple game to learn more about conspiracy theories. This was my first try, naïve, without reference to the prior research or the scholarly literature. It’s not perfect, but it was a good start. I think the categories I created are confusing. I’ll refine the prompt eventually, after looking at how games like these have been developed by others. Or let me know if you make something better along these lines.

Misinformation seems to me to be auto-generative, the result of bad information, bad reasoning, effects like we see in the game of “Telephone,” and biases. Conspiracy theories can arise like urban legends, but they can also be deliberately weaponized, or deliberately constructed as weapons, then let loose to wander … which leads to disinformation. A greater problem than misinformation is disinformation and malign influence, when false, misleading, and divisive information is developed and pushed through a variety of information channels, sometimes also by authorities (climate change denial, vaccine paranoia, etc.). I’m not sure how to tackle these, but I think there could be an adventure awaiting!]

I said: We recently discussed misinformation, an insidious and difficult to counter information pathogen. You mentioned “Inoculation Theory: Just as vaccines expose the body to weakened pathogens, we can expose people to weakened versions of misinformation and teach them how to spot manipulative narratives before they take root.” I’ve also previously read “Inoculation Theory and Misinformation,” published by the NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence, October, 2021, but not much else directly on target.

I’d like you to serve as gamemaster for something like a choose-your-own-adventure game. The object of the game will be to expose people to versions of misinformation in a somewhat light-hearted setting. Today, we’ll focus on conspiracy theories. Let’s start with a simple and restricted approach to the game. You will need to keep the player on track, so in this version of the game, please restrict the player to the steps outlined below. If the player stays from this format, please require them to follow the outline, or else quit the game.

You will offer items from 4 categories: (1) “Real” conspiracy theories (ex: “the Apollo 11 moon landing was staged”), (2) Unresolved conspiracy theories (ex: “Trump is a Russian asset”), (3) False conspiracy theories (feel free to make these up), (4) Real stories that may sound like conspiracy theories (ex: the activities of GRU Unit 29155).

Outline:

• You will provide a 2-3 paragraph description of the item. (Do not identify the category of the item at this stage. Let the player first try to respond.)

• You will allow the player to respond to describe which category the item belongs to, adding evidence. They can feel free to look up evidence or respond with whatever they might know, or think they know.

• You will respond to the player, describing the authoritative evidence.

• You will again allow the player to respond, adding any further comments they might have.

• You will summarize the discussion and pronounce a final ‘verdict.’ You will again rely only on authoritative evidence – and you may suggest authoritative sources to the player, so that they can learn more.

• You will move onto another item, randomly selecting from the 4 categories. What do you think?

Can you do this? I’m not sure if this is exactly what one means by “exposing people to weakened versions of misinformation?”

ChatGPT said:

Yes, I can absolutely run this game as you’ve outlined! Your structured approach aligns well with inoculation theory by exposing players to conspiracy theories in a controlled environment, requiring them to analyze evidence critically, and reinforcing fact-based reasoning. The back-and-forth dialogue allows for correction of misconceptions while keeping the game engaging.

Your format also cleverly blurs the lines between real and fabricated conspiracies, compelling the player to rely on reasoning rather than gut reactions. This is crucial because misinformation often mimics real events to appear more plausible.

A couple of quick clarifications:

1. Do you want me to tell the player the correct category after they make their first guess, or only after the full discussion?

2. Should I introduce new misinformation techniques as we go? (For example, pointing out logical fallacies like "post hoc reasoning" or "appeal to ignorance" when relevant?)

If you’re happy with the setup, I’ll generate the first item and we’ll begin!

I said: Thank you for the suggestions. Yes, please tell the player the correct category only after their first guess. Please also feel free to add new misinformation detection techniques as we go -- it is helpful to learn to understand the fallacies involved.

ChatGPT said:

Great! I’ll serve as the gamemaster, keeping the discussion structured and introducing misinformation techniques as they become relevant.

Let’s begin. Here’s the first item:

The Case of the Disappearing Scientists

In the early 2000s, a string of mysterious deaths among microbiologists led some to believe a global cover-up was underway. Between 2001 and 2005, more than 40 prominent microbiologists died under strange circumstances—some in plane crashes, others in apparent suicides, and a few under even more bizarre conditions, like being struck by a car twice in quick succession.

The deaths occurred across multiple countries and involved experts in infectious diseases, bioterrorism, and DNA sequencing. Some theorists suggested these scientists had uncovered something dangerous to powerful interests—perhaps a secret bioweapons program, or even evidence of engineered viruses meant to control global populations. Others believed intelligence agencies were systematically eliminating them to suppress knowledge of an impending biological catastrophe.

Governments dismissed the pattern as coincidence, but skeptics pointed to striking similarities in the victims’ backgrounds. Was there a hidden hand behind their deaths, or is this just an example of people seeing patterns where none exist?

Your Turn

Which category do you think this belongs to?

1. "Real" conspiracy theory (Well-known but debunked)

2. Unresolved conspiracy theory (An open case with plausible but unconfirmed elements)

3. False conspiracy theory (Completely fabricated nonsense)

4. Real but sounds like a conspiracy (A true event that seems too strange to be real)

Provide your answer and any evidence or reasoning you might have. You’re welcome to look things up or rely on what you already know!

I said: I have never heard of this conspiracy theory. While I have no information upon which to base my response, I am a very avid reader of news across the spectrum of perspectives, so I would expect to have heard of such a theory. I would guess this is a false conspiracy theory. That said, I don't pay attention to misinformation platforms, like X, Facebook, or any of the Chans, where a story like this might circulate, so this could very well be a real conspiracy theory. It's an interesting story. Please enlighten me.

ChatGPT said:

Good reasoning! You’re approaching this the right way—evaluating whether a major conspiracy theory would have left a trace in your broad reading habits and considering whether the idea feels plausible.

Final Category: This is a “Real” conspiracy theory.

The disappearing microbiologists conspiracy theory did gain traction in the early 2000s—especially in the wake of the 2001 anthrax attacks and rising fears of bioterrorism. The deaths were indeed real, but there was no verified evidence of an organized effort to target microbiologists.

Here’s what we know from authoritative sources:

• The deaths occurred over several years and included accidents, natural causes, and some homicides.

• The list of microbiologists wasn’t compiled systematically—it included any scientist with any microbiology connection, even if their work had nothing to do with bioweapons or global health.

• The claim that they were all working on the same research or had a shared discovery was never supported by evidence.

• Intelligence agencies investigated some cases but found no evidence of coordinated assassinations.

This theory is an example of "pattern-seeking bias" (also called apophenia). Humans are wired to see meaningful connections, even when events are random and unrelated.

Related misinformation technique:

• Post hoc fallacy: The idea that because events occurred in succession, there must be a causal relationship.

• Cherry-picking evidence: Only highlighting the deaths that seem suspicious, while ignoring thousands of other microbiologists who lived normal lives.

Your Turn Again

Now that you know the real story, any further thoughts? Have you seen similar cases of pattern-seeking bias in real-world events?

I said: I'll be honest, I'm not very aware of conspiracy theories currently 'in vogue,' so it's difficult to think of another example of apophenia. Can you provide another example so as to reinforce my learning?

ChatGPT said:

The 9/11 $20 Bill Prophecy

After the September 11, 2001 attacks, some people claimed that U.S. currency secretly predicted the tragedy—specifically, that if you folded a $20 bill a certain way, it showed an image of the Twin Towers burning. The claim spread rapidly in conspiracy circles, with some even arguing that this was proof the attacks were planned by the U.S. government or shadowy elites who embedded clues in the currency.

People pointed out that other U.S. bills, when folded in a similar way, produced images resembling the Pentagon and other disasters. The theory suggested that this was no coincidence, but a hidden message encoded by the powerful—perhaps the Illuminati, the Freemasons, or some secret faction within the government.

This claim was widely shared online, especially in the early days of internet forums and chain emails, before being largely debunked.

Your Turn

Now that you’ve seen another example, let’s break it down:

1. What makes this an example of apophenia?

2. Why do you think people find theories like this compelling?

Feel free to analyze or speculate—this game is about developing your misinformation detection instincts!

I said: I suppose one can find anything in numbers or by manipulating images if one tries hard enough. The 'evidence' seems to pre-exist even as it is 'found' only by creating it -- so the pattern is a creation of the person seeking it. This might be compelling for people who tend to believe in super-powers, like gods and demons, but reinvented as human cabals.

ChatGPT said:

That’s an excellent analysis—you’ve identified the core issue: the pattern only "exists" because someone sought it out and constructed it. The process of folding the $20 bill creates a pattern that wasn't originally there, yet once discovered, it feels eerily significant.

Why This Feels Convincing to Some

You also made a sharp connection to magical thinking—the idea that hidden forces govern reality, whether divine, demonic, or conspiratorial. Many conspiracy theories take religious structures of belief (good vs. evil, hidden knowledge, prophecy) and secularize them, replacing supernatural beings with shadowy cabals (e.g., the Illuminati, Deep State, etc.).

Here’s what’s at play:

• Intentionality bias: The belief that events must have a purpose, even if random. ("Someone put this in the $20 bill on purpose!")

• Pattern-seeking bias (Apophenia): Seeing meaningful connections in random data.

• Confirmation bias: Once a person sees the pattern, they look for more supporting "evidence" rather than critically examining it.

This is why number-based conspiracies (e.g., secret codes in the Bible, hidden messages in government documents) never die out—you can always find patterns if you want them badly enough.

Final Verdict: "The $20 Bill Prophecy" is a False Conspiracy Theory.

This was completely fabricated and has no factual basis. The pattern was created by the conspiracy theorists, not by the designers of U.S. currency.

Your Turn Again

Want to try another case? I’ll randomly select one from the four categories!

I said: Let's play another round.

ChatGPT said:

The Vanishing Village of Angikuni

In the winter of 1930, an entire Inuit village near Lake Angikuni in Canada reportedly disappeared overnight. According to the story, a fur trapper named Joe Labelle arrived at the village expecting to find friends and shelter from the cold. Instead, he found empty homes, untouched belongings, and meals still set out on tables—but not a single person in sight.

Even more disturbingly, Labelle claimed that dogs had been found dead, frozen to the ground, without signs of struggle or starvation. The village’s burial site had also been dug up, with no bodies remaining.

Labelle, panicked, rushed to alert the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). However, despite an alleged investigation, no trace of the villagers was ever found—no tracks, no signs of violence, nothing. Some reports even claim that mysterious lights were seen in the sky around the same time, fueling speculation that the villagers had been abducted by aliens.

While skeptics argue that the story has been exaggerated or entirely fabricated, believers insist that the event remains an unsolved mystery—one that official authorities would rather keep hidden.

Your Turn

Which category do you think this belongs to?

1. "Real" conspiracy theory (Well-known but debunked)

2. Unresolved conspiracy theory (An open case with plausible but unconfirmed elements)

3. False conspiracy theory (Completely fabricated nonsense)

4. Real but sounds like a conspiracy (A true event that seems too strange to be real)

Give me your best reasoning! You’re welcome to look up sources, but you can also just analyze the logic of the story itself.

I said: Once again, I've never heard this story. Aside from being an avid news reader, I'm a fan of ‘strange, but true’ tales, so I'd expect to have run across such a story, although I don't have a comprehensive knowledge of these. The 'fact' that no villagers were ever found is significant, because that would be a big deal, which means I'd expect to have heard this story, but in 1930, one might speculate racist authorities might not have looked very hard, or known where to look. My first guess is that this is a false conspiracy theory, but I suppose it's possible this could be any of the other categories.

ChatGPT said:

Great reasoning once again! You’re analyzing this by considering both historical plausibility and the likelihood of encountering the story in your reading habits—a strong approach.

Final Category: "The Vanishing Village of Angikuni" is a False Conspiracy Theory.

This story is entirely fabricated—a classic example of a myth that took on a life of its own. Here’s what we know from authoritative sources:

1. The first mention of the story comes from a 1930 newspaper article by journalist Emmett Kelleher, published in the Canadian newspaper The Halifax Herald. However, there are no historical records or Inuit oral traditions that confirm any such disappearance.

2. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) later investigated and officially debunked the story, stating that there was never any evidence of an abandoned village or missing Inuit people.

3. The tale grew over time, especially in paranormal and UFO circles, where it was embellished with details like the frozen dogs and the missing bodies from graves—elements not found in the original story.

4. No missing person reports exist from the time that match this claim, and Inuit elders in the region say there is no truth to the legend.

Why People Found It Compelling

This story is an example of how urban legends mutate and persist, particularly when they:

• Exploit fears of the unknown (a village vanishing overnight is chilling).

• Invoke racial or cultural stereotypes (e.g., early 20th-century stories often depicted Indigenous people as mysterious or connected to supernatural events).

• Are repeated without verification—once something enters folklore and paranormal literature, it tends to be cited without questioning its origin.

Related Misinformation Technique: "The Illusory Truth Effect"

• When false information is repeated often enough, people begin to accept it as true—even when it has no evidence.

Final Verdict: "The Vanishing Village of Angikuni" Never Happened.

It’s a hoax-turned-legend that continues to be recycled in books, TV shows, and conspiracy circles.

Your Turn Again

Would you like another case? I’ll pull a random one from the four categories!

I said: Let's play one more round for today. This is fun! I really appreciate how you've varied from the outline as appropriate once a case is solved.

ChatGPT said:

I’m glad you’re enjoying it! You’re playing exactly as intended—skeptical, analytical, and open to learning. Let’s go for one more round!

The Lost Cosmonauts

The Soviet Union launched Yuri Gagarin into space in 1961, officially making him the first human in orbit. However, some claim that Gagarin wasn’t actually the first—just the first one who survived.

According to the Lost Cosmonaut theory, the USSR launched multiple secret space missions before Gagarin’s, but when these missions ended in disaster, the Soviet government erased them from history. Some believe that before Gagarin’s flight, cosmonauts were sent into space but died in orbit, either due to spacecraft failures or inability to return to Earth. The theory suggests that rather than admit failure, the USSR covered up their deaths.

Evidence cited by believers includes:

• Alleged recordings from the 1960s by Italian amateur radio operators, the Judica-Cordiglia brothers, who claimed to have intercepted Soviet radio transmissions of dying cosmonauts gasping for air or crying out for help.

• A Soviet military officer’s memo, reportedly declassified decades later, hinting at lost space missions.

• The fact that failed Soviet space programs (like the ill-fated N1 rocket) were often hidden from the public until years later.

The Soviet government always denied these claims, but believers argue that in an era of Cold War secrecy, who knows what really happened?

Your Turn

Which category do you think this belongs to?

1. "Real" conspiracy theory (Well-known but debunked)

2. Unresolved conspiracy theory (An open case with plausible but unconfirmed elements)

3. False conspiracy theory (Completely fabricated nonsense)

4. Real but sounds like a conspiracy (A true event that seems too strange to be real)

What’s your best guess? And what makes you lean that way?

I said: I think this story is quite plausible based on what we solidly know about Soviet actions during the Cold War. However, I also seem to have a vague recollection of running across this story a few years ago or so. I may be having a false memory, but I think I saw a Youtube video explaining that there is no solid evidence supporting this story. If my memory is correct, it would be a real conspiracy theory. Is my (very vague) memory correct?

ChatGPT said:

Your memory is spot on! This is indeed a real conspiracy theory—meaning it’s well-known and widely believed but has been debunked by authoritative sources.

Final Category: "The Lost Cosmonauts" is a Real Conspiracy Theory (Debunked).

What We Know from Authoritative Sources

• No official Soviet records or declassified documents have ever confirmed the existence of lost cosmonauts.

• The Judica-Cordiglia brothers’ recordings have been heavily criticized by experts—there’s no verified proof that the voices they intercepted were from space missions at all. Many scientists believe the recordings were misinterpretations, hoaxes, or even deliberate fabrications.

• NASA and space historians have found no technical evidence that any human was sent into orbit before Gagarin.

• The Soviets did cover up failed space programs, such as the deaths of cosmonauts during training (e.g., Valentin Bondarenko in 1961), but these were on Earth, not in space.

Why It’s Believable to Some

• The Soviet Union had a strong track record of covering up failures—they didn’t acknowledge the Nedelin catastrophe (a missile explosion killing over 100 people) for decades.

• The USSR had secret space programs, so the idea of hidden missions isn’t entirely absurd.

• The recordings felt authentic to the public and were widely reported, reinforcing the illusion of truth.

Misinformation Technique: "The Gaps & Silence Fallacy"

• Just because there’s no evidence proving something false, doesn’t mean it’s true. The conspiracy thrives on what we don’t know, rather than actual proof.

Final Verdict: "Lost Cosmonauts" is a Debunked Conspiracy Theory.

It fits into Cold War secrecy and feels plausible, but there is no verifiable evidence that it ever happened.

Game Recap

• Disappearing Microbiologists → Real conspiracy theory (Debunked, pattern-seeking bias).

• $20 Bill Prophecy → False conspiracy theory (Apophenia, creating patterns).

• The Vanishing Village of Angikuni → False conspiracy theory (Fabricated folklore, illusory truth effect).

• Lost Cosmonauts → Real conspiracy theory (Debunked, Cold War secrecy).

You’ve successfully identified patterns of misinformation across different cases—great work! 🎉

Would you like to continue the game another time? I can always prep more cases!

I said: I'd definitely enjoy playing this game again, possibly with some refinements, although I thought it worked great today. I think it could be helpful for students, but it might be necessary to suggest responses for them, more like a multiple choice. Or, maybe another approach would be if you could provide a 'guide,' like a friendly, expert confidante who might advise the student and suggest ways forward -- someone we might call 'Dr. Cypher,' or something like that. That said, I thought the initial prompt worked very well today and I appreciate how you adjusted your responses to streamline the game. Could you suggest a different initial prompt for students? We could try it out on another occasion.

ChatGPT said:

I’d love to refine this game further, and your "Dr. Cypher" idea is fantastic! A friendly, expert confidante could help guide students through the game, nudging them toward critical thinking without just handing them the answer.

Here’s an adjusted initial prompt designed for students, incorporating a multiple-choice approach and an advisor character to help them navigate:

Misinformation Detective: The Conspiracy Challenge

Welcome to the Misinformation Detective Challenge! 🌎🔍 In this game, you’ll test your ability to analyze strange claims, identify misinformation tactics, and sharpen your critical thinking skills.

Your guide is Dr. Cypher, an expert in conspiracies, misinformation, and logical reasoning. Dr. Cypher won’t just tell you the answers—they’ll challenge your thinking and offer clues along the way.

How to Play:

1. You’ll be presented with a mysterious case—a strange story that may or may not be true.

2. You’ll analyze it and choose what you think is the correct category:

• A real conspiracy theory (Widely believed, but debunked)

• An unresolved conspiracy theory (Some evidence, but not confirmed)

• A false conspiracy theory (Completely made up)

• A real but strange event (Sounds fake, but actually happened)

3. Dr. Cypher will react to your choice, offering insights, asking questions, and sometimes suggesting other ways to think about the case.

4. At the end, you’ll get the real answer and an explanation of how misinformation works!

Would you like to play a round? Dr. Cypher is ready to test your detective skills!

I said: Let's try it in the future. I'm afraid I'm pressed for time today. I really appreciate all of your help!

ChatGPT said:

That sounds great! I’d love to run this version with you next time. Whenever you’re ready, Dr. Cypher will be on standby for another round of Misinformation Detective.

No worries about time—I'm always here when you're free to play again. I really enjoyed today’s session, and I appreciate your thoughtful approach to refining the game!

Good luck with your work, and I look forward to playing again soon! 🚀🔍

I said: Sorry, one last thing for today -- can you provide an image of a classic spy in a trench coat looking through binoculars at something unbelievable?

ChatGPT said: Here's your image of a classic spy in a trench coat, looking through binoculars at something unbelievable! Let me know if you'd like any tweaks or a different interpretation.

I said: That's a very interesting image. How about a cartoon version? I'm thinking of 'spy vs. spy' but that's copyrighted. See what you can do...

ChatGPT said: Here's your cartoon-style spy, complete with an exaggerated shocked expression and a mysterious reflection in the binoculars! Let me know if you’d like any adjustments or variations.

I said: Hilarious! Thanks!!